Friday, November 28, 2008

Global Warming -- It Happens

I humoured a good but somewhat misguided friend the other day and accompanied her to a mini-conference on the global warming issue, entitled "A Planet In Dire Peril." I listened to speaker after speaker bemoan the state of things, the common leitmotif to all this being that the very survival of the planet was in doubt. Making a superhuman effort -- no point in embarrassing my friend -- I held my tongue in check, but when we joined a group later at the bar, my resolve collapsed when one of the attendees, close to tears (or too many martinis) complained bitterly that the earth was done for.

Now I well realized that the points I wished to make would fall on deaf ears, in that if you argue with a reformer, you are always wrong, but really, this was getting completely out of hand.

"That's rubbish," I said loudly and clearly.

Silence for a moment, and then someone asked, "What's rubbish? You can't ignore global warming. Look at what Al Gore --"

"Let's conveniently forget about inconvenient truths for a moment," I interrupted, "and concentrate on the issue of the earth. It may get warmer, it may get colder, but it sure isn't in peril. Think for a moment about a planet undergoing real global warming. Think about Venus, average temperature on the surface of 500 degrees Centigrade, with an atmosphere of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, sulphuric acid and smaller traces of God knows what. Now that's a planet in peril, yet you know what? It gets along just fine, does Venus. As does Earth."

"So?' asked one of the enviromentalists who had given one of the more hair-raising talks.

"So, my friend" I replied, "the planet has been there, done that, and is still with us. Let's review, and yes, you can buy me another Cosmopolitan. First, the Pleistocene Ice Age, 110,000 years ago. Then the Bolling Warm Period, 14,700 years ago. Lasted for some 800 years. This gave way to the Older Dryas Cooling for 300 years, to be followed by the Allerod Warming that went on for 700 years. Most recently we had the Little Ice Age from 1500 to 1850, and since then things have been getting gradually warmer, although nowhere near the Bolling Period. Hence, as you can see, the Conference has been asking the wrong question."

This was greeted by blank stares. Too much information, I thought, too soon.

"The real question" I continued, "should centre upon us. It is we, not the planet, that are in peril. And we will have to act imaginatively. Curtailing greenhouse gases will help, but not that much. The planetary forces at work are far beyond our ability to rein them in, at least outside of an Iain Banks novel, and therefore as much emphasis should be placed on adaptation as on carbon capping and stashing. Oh, and thanks for the drink."

Two minutes later our little section of the bar was deserted.

"Really, Simone." my friend said.

"Yes, I replied, "really."

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