Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Once More Into The Breach -- Not.

Sir Harry called on the secure line, with a request. Apparently he and certain international colleagues were getting together to sort out Afghanistan, and he wanted my input.

"This meeting. Can I go?"

"No"

"Why?"

"Directors only. And you can be very upsetting at times."

"Directors only? Goodness, something might actually happen. Oh, and tell Robert Gates that I still haven't received that case of Dom Perignon for that nonsense in Minsk."

Sir Harry broke the connection.

I didn't bother asking where the meeting was being held, (Sir Harry wouldn't have told me anyway) although it would be some five star hotel or resort somewhere. They live well, do Directors of Intelligence.

After some thought, I wrote a piece and fired it off. This is the gist of it.

Where Afghanistan is concerned, the major focus should be on getting the hell out. It is, as history tells, the place where Empires go to die. Just ask the Brits. Or the Russians. Or for that matter, ask Alexander the Great. Yes, I understood why NATO and the U.S. was in there in the first place -- the Taliban wouldn't give up Osama bin Laden, but as I (and Sir Harry) know, the bunker bombs on Tora Bora took him out on the second day of the war. And the Taliban weren't going to invade anyone. Their own internecine clan warfare is quite enough, and they simply lack the wherewithal, both in military hardware and will, to think of moving too far beyond their borders. They tried this in Pakistan, but when they got too close to Islamabad, Pakistan decided to act. Bye bye Taliban. They also want nothing to do with Western women, who terrify them. I mean, what if their own burka-clad women suddenly saw that there was another role model? No, in Afghanistan they are, and there they will stay.

Al Qaeda is an entirely different kettle of fish. They do have resources, and the will to use them. But the plotting that led to the catastrophe of the World Trade Centre had little to do with Afghanistan. Hell, most of the plot was thought out in Europe, Germany in particular. So keep up the vigilance, and as the plots stand up, knock them down. That's what intelligence agencies are all about.

As for Afghanistan, bring the NATO and American boys and girls home, but not before sending this message to the various warlords and tribal elders in both Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan: "If we have knowledge that an Al Qaeda-like training facility has been constructed, expect a satellite-guided missile right down your throat."

What, you might ask, will happen to the Afghan women? Nothing good, would be my response, but as I have noted before, it is the women themselves that must throw off their chains. This will take time, but we did it and so can they. And yes, with the departure of NATO and the Americans, tribal warfare will erupt, and things will return to normal, as it has been in Afghanistan for hundreds of years, and change will only come slowly. As an Afghanistan saying puts it, "A Pushtun waited for 100 years, then took his revenge. It was quick work."

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