A New Order In North Africa

Given the recent events in North Africa, I was expecting the call, and was not surprised when it came.

It was, of course, Sir Harry.

"Just what is going on over there?" he said bluntly, while assuming I knew where "there" was, and what specifically was occurring.

"Well," I said, drawing on my Yeats, "the centre cannot hold, the falcon cannot hear the falconer, and a very rough beast --"

"Stop that! I simply want a report, and not one that focuses on the obvious. I can get that from the media. I pay you to go after what is not obvious."

"Will do. And stay away from North Korea. It's a dangerous place."

"How did you -- oh, her, and that WRAITH thing. That we have to talk about some time. Now I would appreciate it if you could get right on it. Bye, now."

Goodness, he even said goodbye. Usually he just hangs up, something which leads me to believe that MI 6 is very, very worried.

Well they have reason to be.

I spent about two hours on the secure line, calling in a number of markers involving an halal butcher in Cairo, an olive farmer in Lebanon and a gold vendor in an Aden souk in Yemen, as well as having a fascinating conversation with a 'madam' I got to know in a Tunis brothel. Sources such as these, once they trust you, will always deliver useful information, and not the 'Will of Allah' drivel shouted out on the street. Or, for that matter, on CNN or Al-Jazeera. So here is my take on things.

The eruptions in Lebanon, Tunisia, Yemen and Egypt all appeared to occur at roughly the same time. This fact seems to have escaped the pundits and analysts reviewing the situation, and it was a fact to which that I gave some consideration. What had triggered all these uprisings? The only thing all had in common was the initial outrage at rising food prices. Hah! There it was, the Gini Coefficient at work. The top 5% of the earners wouldn't give a tinker's damn, but for the
impoverished 95%, it was a matter of life and death.

So the person responsible for all this is Al Gore.

Well, not really. He had just warned about global warming, when he would have been better off rabbiting on about climate change. Nevertheless, climate change has drastically curtailed food production in many places, and farmers take time to adapt to changing conditions. So prices rise, along with anger, and sooner or later there is spillage.

And that spillage that can be very bloody indeed.

[An aside: The Gini Coefficient in America is getting dangerously high. Both Republicans and Democrats should be worried about this; the lowly 95% are exceedingly well-armed. A topic for another day.]

Now to the players in the North African drama.

Lebanon: A thriving middle class and a slew of factions all wanting a piece of the action should be enough to see off Hizbollah. But Hizbollah has all the guns, so things remain dicey.

Tunisia: Tunisians are well-educated, and the middle class is an effective force. Ben Ali has fled to Saudi Arabia, his family elsewhere (including Canada, where they may be sent right back) so things should ease and a new government take shape. If Islamic fundamentalists take charge, however, watch out.

Yemen: A number of my sources saw Yemen as easy prey for Al Qaeda. I am not so sure. Yemen is a tribal society, and clan loyalty will trump lunatic jihadists every time.

Egypt: The biggie. Here two things are of paramount importance, a vibrant and growing middle class (although it needs to grow much larger) and a well-equipped and well-led army (it gave Israel its toughest fight). Those two factors should be able to cope with the Muslim Brotherhood and their call for a 'New Order". Mubarak has already agreed not to run in a future election, and is eying property on the Riviera. We shall see.

And as for the Muslim Brotherhood's call for a 'New Order', I refer them to the words engraved on Franklin Roosevelt's memorial monument:

They who seek to establish systems of government based on the regimentation of all human beings by a handful of individuals call this a new order. It is not new, and it is not order.

Bye, now.