On The Unpredictable

At the request of Sir Harry, I had been asked to review the security arrangements for the London Olympics. After a rather intensive review, I signalled that all seemed to work, save for the completely unexpected. Sir Harry, in his usual gruff way, asked just what the hell I meant.

So I told him.

I indicated that the problem had been best put by Donald Rumsfeld, in one of the few statements he had made that made sense: his reference to "unknown knowns and unknown unknowns". It is here, in my opinion, that the real security issue lies, and we have good evidence for the premise.

To wit: Marc Lepine, who took it upon himself to murder fourteen women at Montreal's Ecole Polytechnique. No one saw this coming, and it was only through later research that his hatred of women came to light. Before the act, nothing appeared out of the ordinary. Thus King Duncan's observation in Macbeth about the betrayal of the Thane of Cawdor (and something instinctively known by every successful poker player): "There's no art to find the mind's construction in the face / He was a gentleman upon whom I placed an absolute trust." And at this point Macbeth enters....but I digress.

To wit: The attack on the World Trade Center. Here things get a bit complex. The attack was certainly unexpected, but unlike the Lepine situation,  there were some clues, not the least of which was the pilot training programs that the 9 / 11 Saudis enrolled in. Their only interest was in learning take offs and mid-air flying -- landing was of no interest whatsoever. This was noticed by several FBI field agents, and the warnings forwarded to their superiors in Washington. Of course, given that such information was sent by lowly field agents, the 'experienced' superiors ignored these warnings. (I have often wondered what happened to these agents. Probably counting ice worms in Barrow, Alaska, or hunting down gator poachers in The Everglades. We should be told.)

To wit: The massacre in Aurora, Colorado at the theatre showing the new Batman film. It is this type of situation that should worry Sir Harry and all others in charge of security at public events. No indications whatsoever were given. The perpetrator, one James Holmes, was an 'A' student in the field of neuroscience, and seen as industrious, clean-cut, and an all round good guy.

The only tip off would have been the number of guns he had purchased, but this raises no flags in the land of the free and home of the brave. So aided and abetted by five justices of the U.S. Supreme Court, who could not get their pointy heads around the ablative absolute embedded in the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution ** (to say nothing of the pernicious effect of the National Rifle Association lobby) Mr. Holmes road to carnage was open.

It is only now that we are finding out that not all was as it seemed, given Mr. Holmes relationship with a psychiatrist. This, of course, is typical, and, if security is your profession, the stuff of nightmares.

And what of James Holmes now? Well, if you compare his 'before' pictures with those taken after the shooting, it's hard to believe they're the same person. A good looking young man is now a haggard shell, and brings to mind a statement upon which I will conclude: If you dance with the devil, the devil won't change.

But you will.

** The Amendment gives the right to bear arms only to the militia (now the armed forces and the states' National Guard.) This was crystal clear to the Founders, who knew their Latin, but not clear at all to the majority of Americans, who don't.