What If Putin Is Right?

A bit late this week, but I have been wrestling with a rather thorny issue, to wit: Is Vladimir Putin correct when he states that Bashar al-Assad did not use Sarin gas against those rebelling against his regime? If so, a great number of states are going to be in a very awkward position, a position akin to suddenly finding a tarantula on a wedding cake. The United States in particular would be embarrassed.

What set me down this path was a communication from a Middle Eastern source who has proved reliable in the past. She had discovered (never mind how) that there was a great deal of confusion about the gas attack. As the United Nations Report has indicated, it is beyond doubt that Sarin gas was used, and that it was in its ghastly way very effective. No one disputes this finding.

But there is an elephant in the room that is becoming more and more visible. In short, the 'why' of the matter is confusing, and this leads to some puzzles with respect to the 'how' of the matter.
It is truly unfortunate that the U.N. Report is vague on these issues.

Let me explain.

In any analysis of a situation, one key question should drive the exploration -- Who benefits? In this case, certainly not Assad, for by using Sarin gas in this manner he brings down much of the world's wrath upon his head. And had there been a different U.S. President, who meant what he said when a "red line" was crossed, a bombing campaign by now would be well under way. * No, the true beneficiaries would be the rebels.

But the rebels are fighting FOR the people of Syria, and would be loath to take up arms against those who were, in every sense of the term, defenceless. If not the rebels, then who? Who could possibly in such a terrible way attack such as these?

Well, recent events, not the least of which was the destruction of New York's twin towers. indicate that there is a group that wouldn't bat an eye at harming innocents -- the sub-humans that comprise Al-Qaeda and its horrific offshoots. And my source indicates that the Syrian rebels have been thoroughly infiltrated by Al-Qaeda fanatics.

And the benefit? To ensure that Assad feels the full brunt of U.S. military might.

As to the 'how' of the matter, my source has come across a not entirely redacted section of a U.N. e-mail where only the word 'Molotov" can be discerned. She suspects that the term refers to Molotov cocktails and suggests that this was the means by which the Sarin gas was released And, interesting this, the U.N. found no evidence of the type of canisters that could have been dropped by aircraft.

All this is, of course, speculation, and food for thought. If proved wrong, though, Putin will come off as an untrustworthy clown. He would know this, and I would doubt he would risk being so laughed off the stage. No Pagliacci he, and this commedia is far from finita.

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* Teddy Roosevelt would not have hesitated an instant. Given the substance of this post, Barack Obama may have done precisely the right thing. -- L.S.S.